Causal impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on daily ridership of public bicycle sharing in Seoul

Abstract

Public bicycle can be a disease-resilient travel mode during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Nonetheless, its evidence on public bicycle sharing is still inconclusive. This study used Bayesian structural time series models and causal impact inference for the data on the daily ridership of public bicycles in Seoul, South Korea, for 1826 days from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2021. The study found that the usage of public bicycles was robust against the COVID-19 pandemic even in densely populated Seoul. Compared with the pre-pandemic period, public bicycles’ usage was unaffected on days when weather conditions, such as snow, rain, and wind speed were not as severe, as well as on days with non-seasonal event factors, such as weekdays, public holidays, and traditional Korean holidays. In addition, its robustness against the pandemic became more pronounced as the number of bicycle racks increased and the intensity of social distancing increased. However, public bicycles were in demand primarily for leisure and exercise, not for travel, during the pandemic. Public bicycle sharing can be a disease-resilient travel mode. Continuous investment in infrastructure such as bicycle paths and public bicycle is required to become a more resilient travel mode against infectious diseases.