Causal Deep Neural Network-Based Model for First-Line Hypertension Management

Abstract

ObjectiveTo develop and validate a machine learning model that predicts the most successful antihypertensive treatment for an individual. Patients and MethodsThe causal, deep neural network-based model was trained on data from 16,917 newly diagnosed hypertensive patients attending Mayo Clinic’s primary care practices from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2021. Eligibility criteria included a diagnosis of primary hypertension, blood pressure and creatinine measurements before antihypertensive treatment, treatment within 9 months of diagnosis, and at least 1 year of follow up. The primary outcome was model performance in predicting the likelihood of a successful antihypertensive treatment 1 year from the start of treatment. Treatment success was defined as achieving blood pressure control with no moderate or severe adverse effects. Model validation and guideline agreement was assessed on 1000 patients. ResultsIn the training set of 16,917 participants (60.8±14.7 years; 8344 [49.3%] women), 33.8% achieved blood pressure control without moderate or severe adverse effects for at least a year with initial treatment. The most common treatment was angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (39.1% average success), and the most successful was angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor-thiazide combination (44.4% average success). Our custom-built causal, deep neural network-based model exhibited the highest accuracy in predicting individualized treatment success with a precision of 51.7%, recall of 44.4%, and F1 score of 47.8%. Compared with actual physician practice on the validation set (77.9% agreement), the algorithm aligned with the Eighth Joint National Committee hypertension guidelines 95.7% of the time. ConclusionA machine learning algorithm can accurately predict the likelihood of antihypertensive treatment success and help personalize hypertension management.