Catch per unit effort standardization using spatio-temporal models for Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery

Abstract

AbstractThe majority of catch per unit effort (cpue) standardizations use generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). We develop geostatistical models that model catch locations as continuous Gaussian random fields (GRFs) and apply them to standardizing cpue in Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery (ETBF). The results are compared with the traditional GLMs currently used in ETBF assessments as well as GAMs. Specifically, we compare seven models in three groups: two GLMs, two GAMs, and three GRF models. Within each group, one model treats spatial and temporal variables independently, while the other model(s) treats them together as an interaction term. The two spatio-temporal GRF models differ in treating the spatial–temporal interaction: either as a random process or as an autoregressive process. We simulate catch rate data for five pelagic species based on real fishery catch rates so that the simulated data reflect real fishery patterns while the “true” annual abundance levels are known. The results show that within each group, the model with a spatial–temporal interaction term significantly outperforms the other model treating spatial and temporal variables independently. For spatial–temporal models between the three groups, prediction accuracy tends to improve from GLM to GAM and to the GRF models. Overall, the spatio-temporal GRF autoregressive model reduces mean relative predictive error by 43.4% from the GLM, 33.9% from the GAM, and reduces mean absolute predictive error by 23.5% from the GLM and 3.3% from the GAM, respectively. The comparison suggests a promising direction for further developing the geostatistical models for the ETBF.