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Abstract
Catastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in relatively simple ecological models the most commonly used early warning signals for a catastrophic collapse can be silent. We underpin the mathematical reason for this phenomenon, which involves the direction of the eigenvectors of the system. Our results demonstrate that claims on the universality of early warning signals are not correct, and that catastrophic collapses can occur without prior warning. In order to correctly predict a collapse and determine whether early warning signals precede the collapse, detailed knowledge of the mathematical structure of the approaching bifurcation is necessary. Unfortunately, such knowledge is often only obtained after the collapse has already occurred.
Highlights
Catastrophic regime shifts can occur in many ecosystems, and often such shifts cause substantial loss of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning [1]
The variance and autocorrelation will both steeply increase when approaching the fold bifurcation. This is a generic property of fold bifurcations, and it suggests that generic early warning signals can be observed for natural ecosystems [7][11][12]
No early warning signal is observed for the variation in adult and predator density, regardless of the way in which environmental noise is added to the system
Summary
Catastrophic regime shifts can occur in many ecosystems, and often such shifts cause substantial loss of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning [1]. The existence of generic early warning signals, which precede and can predict such a catastrophic collapse, has received much attention [2][3][4][5][6][7], the concept was already proposed much earlier [8]. As catastrophic shifts can cause substantial loss of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, reliably predicting such catastrophes would be of crucial importance. The variance and autocorrelation will both steeply increase when approaching the fold bifurcation. This is a generic property of fold bifurcations, and it suggests that generic early warning signals can be observed for natural ecosystems [7][11][12]. How robust and informative these early warning signals are for more complex ecosystems remains unclear
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