Casualty Sensitivity in a Post-Soviet Context: Russian Views of the Second Chechen War, 2001–2004

Abstract

Russia provides an interesting case for the analysis of why, how, and to what effect modern governments seek to shape public opinion regarding their military campaigns. Russia's leadership has exerted considerable efforts to shape domestic and international perceptions of the second Chechen war, which commenced in August 1999 with an incursion into the neighboring re public of Dagestan by Chechen extremists. By all accounts, the current cam paign was tremendously popular at the outset, factoring heavily in Vladimir Putin's meteoric rise to the presidency in 2000. But the conflict has persisted, producing an ever-larger toll of casualties and economic costs. Has the level of public support for the military campaign persisted over time, or has it waned? How do factors such as casualty levels, the justification of the campaign, and the prospects for success relate to the dynamic of public support? How effec tive have the government's attempts to mold public views of the war been? Have public perceptions of the conflict affected the level of ethnic animosities? We address these questions using survey data from 2001-2004 and quali tative data from focus groups conducted in 2002. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that portrays the war as broadly popular, Russians have been divided regarding the proper policy solution to the war, with growing numbers sup porting non-military solutions. Policy preferences regarding the war are related to sensitivity to casualties and economic costs as well as views on the justifi