Casualty Estimates in Two Up‐Dip Complementary Himalayan Earthquakes

Abstract

Research Article| October 11, 2017 Casualty Estimates in Two Up‐Dip Complementary Himalayan Earthquakes Max Wyss; Max Wyss aInternational Centre for Earth Simulation Foundation, Chemin du Vent‐Blanc 8, 1223 Cologny, Switzerland, max@maxwyss.ch Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Sushil Gupta; Sushil Gupta bRisk Modeling and Insurance Division, A‐8, Sector‐16, RMSI Private Limited, Noida 201301, India Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Philippe Rosset Philippe Rosset aInternational Centre for Earth Simulation Foundation, Chemin du Vent‐Blanc 8, 1223 Cologny, Switzerland, max@maxwyss.ch Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (6): 1508–1515. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170091 Article history first online: 11 Oct 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Max Wyss, Sushil Gupta, Philippe Rosset; Casualty Estimates in Two Up‐Dip Complementary Himalayan Earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters 2017;; 88 (6): 1508–1515. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170091 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT Recent Himalayan earthquakes have ruptured only the down‐dip part of the underthrusting fault plane, bringing the respective up‐dip sections closer to failure by transferring stress. We estimate the losses likely when the complementary up‐dip sections also fail following the 1947 M 7.9 Subansiri and the 1905 M 7.8 Kangra down‐dip ruptures. We estimate that the population strongly affected (intensities ≥VI⁠) may number 12 million and 33 million in the 1947 and the 1905 up‐dip segments, respectively. The number of fatalities is estimated to be about 100,000 and 200,000 in the 1947 and 1905 up‐dip segments, respectively, with an estimated three times as many injured. We assess the uncertainties of these values to be factors of ∼4⁠, unless larger earthquakes, including neighboring segments are involved, in which case the casualties would be significantly larger. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.