Cassava Production in Nigeria: Trends, Instability and Decomposition Analysis (1970 – 2017)

Abstract

This study analyzed the compound growth rate (CGR) and the contributions of yield and area to cassava production output in Nigeria. In estimating the trend, the study factored into consideration, triennium ending (TE) to accommodate inter-year fluctuations. During the period, TE1970 – 1995, yield oscillated between 10.7t/ha (TE1972) and 10.6 t/ha (TE1996). At this period, the CGR for yield (0.7%), area (10.8%) and production (11.5%) were positive. The decomposition analysis for the period revealed that increase in output was largely due to expansion of area under cultivation (115%). However, during the period, TE1996 – 2017, the huge increase in production was largely as a result of interaction between yield and area effects (56.8%) and yield effect (43.8%). At this period, values of CGR for area (9.5%) and production (7.5%) were positive while that of yield was negative (-1.9%). There was a sharp decline from 11.7t/ha (TE2011) to 7.9t/ha (TE2014). The interaction between yield and area as well as yield effect compensated for the negative effect of the shrinking land for cassava cultivation. The study recommends that policy strategies geared towards cutting edge scientific methods and best agronomic practices can achieve optimum cassava production in Nigeria.