Caspian Sea Regional Security in the 21st Century

Abstract

Abstract : With the breakup of the Soviet Union, the status of the Caspian Sea instantly became orders of magnitude more complicated than it had been when its littoral states numbered only two. The mid-1990s discovery and confirmation of major inland and offshore oil and natural gas deposits further multiplied the potential for disagreement and conflict. Now surrounded by five independent countries, each with its own unique national interests, the Caspian is a region ripe with potential for political dispute, but also rich in economic promise. The major issues impacting the littoral states of Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran include delimitation of the Caspian's surface waters and seabed; energy export (pipeline) routes; Islamic fundamentalism and other ethno-religious disputes; and the war against transnational terrorism. Additionally, as non-contiguous state actors, the United States and China play a major role in the region, particularly since the 9-11 terror attacks, which prompted the previously unthinkable basing of U.S. forces in Central Asia. A host of peripheral players, both pipeline transit states and ultimate consumers of Caspian energy, also participate in regional decision-making. What path should the United States follow in its relations with Caspian states? With the geopolitical and economic stakes so high, missteps could cost an unlucky participant in this 2% century version of the Great Game dearly, but there is more at stake than access to oil. This examination of Caspian security describes the major issues facing the participants and prescribes a regional policy for the United States to follow to secure its national interests in addition to contributing to its perennial foreign policy goals of promoting regional stability, economic development and democratization in the region.