Caspian Sea level prediction using satellite altimetry by artificial neural networks

Abstract

The demand for accurate predictions of sea level fluctuations in coastal management and ship navigation activities is increasing. To meet such demand, accessible high-quality data and proper modeling process are critically required. This study focuses on developing and validating a neural methodology applicable to the short-term forecast of the Caspian Sea level. The input and output data sets used contain two time series obtained from Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellite altimetry missions from 1993 to 2008. The forecast is performed by multilayer perceptron network, radial basis function, and generalized regression neural networks. Several tests of different artificial neural network (ANN) architectures and learning algorithms are carried out as alternative methods to the conventional models to assess their applicability for estimating Caspian Sea level anomalies. The results derived from the ANN are compared with observed sea level values and with the forecasts calculated by a routine autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Different ANNs satisfactorily provide reliable results for the short-term prediction of Caspian Sea level anomalies. The root mean square errors of the differences between observations and predictions from artificial intelligence approaches can be significantly reduced by about 50 % compared with ARMA techniques.