Caspian energy phase II: Beyond 2005

Abstract

This article examines the major factors that will shape the second phase of Caspian oil and natural gas export. The article compares the prospects of the post-2005 period with the Caspian energy developments in the first decade and a half after independence. This article claims: One, political considerations will continue to play an important role in the decisions on export routes for and participants in Caspian energy production and export projects. However, those political considerations will produce different policies in phase two of Caspian energy production than they did in the first phase. Second, the relative influence and interest in the Caspian region of various global and regional powers have changed significantly from Caspian energy phase one to phase two. Third, the producers in the region are not as anxious for foreign investment as they were earlier. The major resources that will be developed in Caspian phase two are: new production of Azerbaijan’s natural gas, extension to new markets and expansion of capacity of existing gas export routes; new production projects for Turkmenistan’s natural gas and new pipelines; and additional Kazakhstani oil production and natural gas increased production and initiation of export.