Caseload Forecasting Models for Federal District Courts

Abstract

IN 1928, Felix Frankfurter and James M. Landis asserted that range and intensity of governing political, social, and economic forces are accurately reflected in the volume and variety of federal litigation.' Frankfurter and Landis did not verify their assertion, however, since it was not essential to their main thesis that the business of the United States Supreme Court is a function of the business of the federal trial courts. In 1974, Gerhard Casper and Richard Posner offered a variant of the Frankfurter and Landis theme: [I]t seems reasonable to expect a positive relationship between the volume of an activity-crime, or highway accidents, or retail sales, or marriages, or whatever-and the number of cases arising out of that activity.'2 In short (and subject to qualification), litigation volume varies directly with the volume of activity that gives rise to legal disputes. Casper and Posner did not test their theory, although their review of the changes in the Supreme Court's caseload over time is premised upon it.3