Abstract
Aim of study is the cost estimation of drilling wells using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) method which is created based on the viewpoint of using presented solutions for previous solved problems in order to solve new similar problems. In companies or organizations which cost estimation, scheduling, design, planning and project activities sequences and etc., are considered as an iterative activity, project managers naturally use previous experiences in order to estimate the instances mentioned above in new similar case. Thus, offering a comprehensive approach which can support this natural behavior, will significantly contribute to the appropriate decision making. CBR method could be an appropriate tool for decision making in this area. The major findings of this study is that, in the proposed CBR model despite limited data, the error of method according to the performance indicators was very low. Therefore, obtained estimation accuracy of the proposed CBR model is high and the model is useful. On the other hand, given that the available estimation methods spend much time to estimate cost, we could save time using the CBR method and hence the speed of drilling which is very important is increased.
Highlights
Engineering design and management of cost, play an essential role in project feasibility studies, and are fundamental for final success of a project
Size of our Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) system should increase more than 20% without implementing stages of obtaining statistics of case use and verification tests repeat
Data preparation: Data collection: At the present study, we show the application of CBR method for cost estimation of the drilling of oil and gas wells in design phase in Petro Pars Company and National Iranian Drilling Company (NIDC)
Summary
Engineering design and management of cost, play an essential role in project feasibility studies, and are fundamental for final success of a project. Case-based reasoning method is formed based on using response of problems solutions to solve new similar problems. Solving problem by using CBR method is done in one cycle and it includes four processes as follows:. Revise the proposed solution if there is conflict in conditions of the new problem and retrieved problem. When a new problem is presented, its conditions is compared with status of previous solved problems and using mechanisms of similarity, the most similar previous cases are retrieved. The retrieved cases are applied to provide a solution for the new problem and subsequently proposed solution is provided. We seek to estimate the cost of drilling wells using CBR method
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