Abstract
ABSTRACTShipping and shipping services are a key industry of great importance to the economy of Cyprus and the wider European Union. Assessment, management and future steering of the industry, and its associated economy, is carried out by a range of organisations and is of direct interest to a number of stakeholders. This article presents an analysis of shipping credit flow data: an important and archetypal series whose analysis is hampered by rapid changes of variance. Our analysis uses the recently developed data-driven Haar–Fisz transformation that enables accurate trend estimation and successful prediction in these kinds of situation. Our trend estimation is augmented by bootstrap confidence bands, new in this context. The good performance of the data-driven Haar–Fisz transform contrasts with the poor performance exhibited by popular and established variance stabilisation alternatives: the Box–Cox, logarithm and square root transformations.
Highlights
In the European Union (EU) Cyprus is a top performer in ship management that employs about 55,000 sailors that originate from many countries and manages more than 2000 ocean-going ships equating to about 48 million tons, Cyprus Shipping Chamber [11]
The data-driven Haar–Fisz transform is a recent method for variance stabilisation [21,22,43] which is itself a development of the Haar–Fisz transformation for Poissondistributed data introduced by Fryzlewicz [19] and described by Fryzlewicz and Nason [23]
A similar trend plot could have been generated in a similar way for the logtransformation, but in view of the improved stabilisation of the data-driven Haar–Fisz transform observed in Figure 3(d) this seems unnecessary
Summary
Ship owning and management are vital activities in the shipping industry which carries out a variety of operations and supports a wide community of intermediary organisations, such as marine insurance brokers and ship chandlers. Many ship owners currently outsource tasks to third party management companies which helps control expenditure and avoids disruption of lengthy voyages. Such outsourcing has caused ship owning and management to become increasingly distinct and specialised activities. Shipping is a key contributor to the Balance of Payments for Cyprus. Cyprus has the third-largest ship registry in the EU with more than 1000 ships, in terms of tonnage
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