Abstract
The behavior of the value of productive assets can be analyzed from different perspectives. Currently, an analysis of the influence of the age of an asset on its asking price through access to a mass information volume, as well as the emergence of new technologies that allow complex computations to be carried out. The core of this work focuses on the analysis of the value of public works machinery and construction because this group of assets belong to companies in a sector that suffered a very negative decline in the evolution of their profits (because of the economic crisis started in 2007). Applying linear, exponential and potential regression models, the behavior of the asking price of assets based on their age is analyzed. Previously the database is processed in order to eliminate the outlier data using the technique of Median Absolute Deviation. Therefore, a basic depreciation rate (based solely on the passage of time) is presented, which is contrasted by the application of cross-validation techniques.
Highlights
The core of this work focuses on the analysis of the value of public works machinery and construction because this group of assets belong to companies in a sector that su ered a very negative decline in the evolution of their profits
Exponential and potential regression models, the behavior of the asking price of assets based on their age is analyzed
The database is processed in order to eliminate the outlier data using the technique of Median Absolute Deviation
Summary
Caso de estudio: modelización de la vida útil de maquinaria destinada a proyectos de obra pública a través de la aplicación de regresiones mínimo cuadráticas y validación cruzada. El núcleo de este trabajo se centra en el análisis del valor de la maquinaria de obra pública y construcción por pertenecer este grupo de activos a empresas de un sector que registró un descenso muy negativo en la evolución de sus rendimientos (a causa de la crisis económica iniciada en el año ). Mediante modelos de regresión lineal, exponencial y potencial, se analiza el comportamiento del precio de venta de los activos en función de su antigüedad. Se presenta por lo tanto un coeficiente de depreciación básico (basado únicamente en el paso del tiempo), el cual se contrasta mediante la aplicación de técnicas de validación cruzada
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