Abstract
We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered.
Highlights
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is spreading globally; as of March 5, 2020, cases were reported in China and 85 other countries, territories, and areas (1)
Disease severity is a crucial parameter for understanding this new disease (2), but accurately estimating the case-fatality risk is difficult because milder cases are not being diagnosed and death is delayed
We assumed that the day of radiological confirmation of pneumonia approximately equated to the reporting date for laboratoryconfirmed cases of COVID-19 to World Health Organization (WHO)
Summary
We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is spreading globally; as of March 5, 2020, cases were reported in China and 85 other countries, territories, and areas (1). Disease severity is a crucial parameter for understanding this new disease (2), but accurately estimating the case-fatality risk is difficult because milder cases are not being diagnosed and death is delayed.
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