Case Fatality Rate Components Based Scenarios for COVID-19 Lockdown

Abstract

Background: The important control measure to limit the spread of the pandemic is a lockdown. Current criteria for initiating or releasing lockdown are largely subjective and debatable. Many divergent views are arguing for initiating, continuing, and ending the lockdown.Aim: This paper aims to find a unique baseline statistically derived standardized model of different options scenarios for lockdown initiation and releasing without the need for a subjective opinion. Design: Twenty-one countries were chosen. The inclusion criterion was each country should have more than 1 million COVID-19 tests/ M on February 25, 2021. Data is derived regarding reported crude COVID-19 cases /million population inhabitants (CC/M) and COVID-19 deaths/M population inhabitants (CD/M). Case fatality rate (CFR), CC/M and CD/M were used for developing a lockdown model.Results: the estimated CFR critical value was 1.125. Different estimates of confidence intervals for the critical point were provided. The lower CFR point for confidence interval at 0.0005 p-value was 0.464485, while at 0.05 p-value was 0.829029.Conclusions: A novel statistical model was developed.