CARTMAP: a neural network method for automated feature selection in financial time series forecasting

Abstract

In the past two decades, there has been much interest in applying neural networks to financial time series forecasting. Yet, there has been relatively little attention paid to selecting the input features for training these networks. This paper presents a novel CARTMAP neural network based on Adaptive Resonance Theory that incorporates automatic, intuitive, transparent, and parsimonious feature selection with fast learning. On average, over three separate 4-year simulations spanning 2004–2009 of Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks, CARTMAP outperformed related and classical alternatives. The alternatives were an industry standard random walk, a regression model, a general purpose ARTMAP, and ARTMAP with stepwise feature selection. This paper also discusses why the novel feature selection scheme outperforms the alternatives and how it can represent a step toward more transparency in financial modeling.