Carrying Capacity Dynamics, Livestock Commercialisation and Land Degradation in Mongolia's Free Market Era

Abstract

The dramatic consequences of the severe winters and droughts between 1999 and 2002 drew world-wide attention to Mongolia's important livestock sector and its extensive - and growing - nomadic pastoralists. Much of the focus in this regard was put on the impacts of the change from communist rule to a free market regime. In a recent section of the journal 'Development and Change' 35(1), co-ordinated by Robin Mearns, these consequences are discussed extensively. However, concepts likenature´, ´market´, anddegradationare used as container concepts, without much empirical specificity. A recent research project run by Mongolian and Dutch re- searchers applied models of carrying capacity dynamics, and caloric terms of trade, to better un- derstand the relationships between the dynamics of nature and the dynamics of the market in this volatile environment. The project applied these models to Mongolia as a whole, and to two case study areas: Ugtaal in the north, and Gurvansaikhan in the south. The analysis shows the impor- tance of policy attention for livestock commercialisation. A large majority of herders simply do not have enough animals to sustain themselves in the traditional way. They are either forced to combine subsistence livestock-keeping with a variety of other jobs, or they can choose to become more market-oriented herders. If they do this wisely, they can increase their incomes, improve their health, and maintain the pastures. However, this depends on renewed forms of land and wa- ter management institutions preventing the few rich (and partly absentee) herders from over- utilising the pastures to the detriment of their poorer, and more market-oriented, fellow pastoral- ists. PREM Working Paper: 05/10