Carotid plaque score for stroke and cardiovascular risk prediction in a middle-aged cohort from the general population: the akershus cardiac examination 1950 study

Abstract

Abstract Background Assessment of carotid atherosclerosis with ultrasound may have an unfilled potential in predicting stroke and cardiovascular events. Purpose We aimed to explore the predictive value of the carotid plaque score compared to the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) 2 risk prediction algorithm, on incident stroke and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and establish a prognostic cut-off for the carotid plaque score. Methods In the prospective Akershus Cardiac Eexamination (ACE) 1950 cohort study, carotid plaque score was calculated with ultrasound at inclusion in 2012-2015. The largest plaque diameter in each extra cranial segment of the carotid artery both sides was measured and scored from 0-3 points. The sum of each segment provided the carotid plaque score. Incident stroke and composite endpoint MACE (nonfatal stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death) was assessed by linkage to national registries throughout 2020. Results Carotid plaque score was available in 3650 (98.5%) of the participants, with mean age at inclusion was 63.9±0.64 years. Only 462 (12.7%) were free of plaque and the median carotid plaque score was 2 (IQR 1-4). By the end of 2020, 42 (1.2%) subjects had experienced a stroke and 145 (4.0%) a MACE. Carotid plaque score was a predictor of incident stroke (HR 1.25, 95%CI 1.15-1.36) and MACE (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.14-1.27) after adjustment for SCORE2, and outperformed SCORE2 in predicting stroke (p=0.001). The best cut-off value for carotid plaque score determined by receiver operator characteristics area under the curve was ≥4 with a positive predictive value 2.5% and negative predictive value 99.3%. Conclusion Carotid plaque score is a strong predictor of incident stroke and MACE and outperforms SCORE2 for risk prediction in a middle-aged cohort recruited from the general population. A cut-off score of ≥4 seems to be suitable to identify high-risk subjects.Graphical AbstractCarotid plaque score distribution