Abstract
Background/Aims. Subclinical atherosclerosis and long-term glycemic variability have been reported to predict incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the general population. However, these associations have not been investigated in patients with type 2 diabetes with preserved kidney function. Methods. We prospectively followed up 162 patients with type 2 diabetes (mean age, 62.3 years; 53.6% men) and assessed whether carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) measured by B-mode ultrasound and visit-to-visit HbA1c variability are associated with deterioration of CKD (incident CKD defined as estimated GFR [eGFR] < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and progression of CKD stages) over a median follow-up of 6.0 years. At baseline, 25 patients (15.4%) had CKD. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for identifying associated factors of CKD deterioration. Results. Estimated GFR decreased from 75.8 ± 16.3 to 67.4 ± 18.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 (p < 0.01). Of 162 patients, 32 developed CKD and 8 made a progression of CKD stages. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that carotid IMT (HR: 4.0, 95% CI: 1.1–14.226.7, and p = 0.03) and coefficient of variation of HbA1c (HR: 1.12, 95%: 1.04–1.21, and p = 0.003) were predictors of deterioration of CKD independently of age, mean HbA1c, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, baseline eGFR, uric acid, and leucocyte count. Conclusions. Subclinical atherosclerosis and long-term glycemic variability predict deterioration of chronic kidney disease (as defined by incident or worsening CKD) in type 2 diabetic patients with preserved kidney function.
Highlights
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been consistently and independently associated with longitudinal risk for cardiovascular disease and heart failure
Prospective studies have shown a positive correlation between increased carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), a subclinical marker of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease, and the risk for kidney function decline and incident CKD in the elderly [9, 10]
We have recently shown a direct association between visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and kidney function decline in patients with type 2 diabetes [12]
Summary
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been consistently and independently associated with longitudinal risk for cardiovascular disease and heart failure. Other cardiovascular disease risk factors, such as cigarette smoking, inflammation, and dyslipidemia, have been linked to declining kidney function in some, but not all, studies [4,5,6,7,8]. These overlapping risk factor patterns lead us to hypothesize that atherosclerosis may be an important mechanism leading to declines in kidney function. Prospective studies have shown a positive correlation between increased carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), a subclinical marker of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease, and the risk for kidney function decline and incident CKD in the elderly [9, 10]. There is limited understanding of whether the presence of a subclinical marker of atherosclerosis, like carotid IMT, is an important predictor for progression to CKD in type 2 diabetic
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