Abstract
A probabilistic model was used to analyze the cumulative risk of occupational hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among U.S. public safety workers. A model for the career risk of HCV was developed using the frequency of parenteral exposures to blood, the population seroprevalence of HCV, and the risk of seroconversion after exposure. Estimates of key input variables were obtained from published studies. Calculated estimates of the 30-year risk of infection ranged from <0.1% for police, firefighters, and corrections officers to 1.9% among paramedics and emergency department personnel in high-risk communities. Infrequent exposure to high-risk blood seems to present a greater risk of infection than more frequent contact to low-risk populations. Use of a probabilistic risk assessment model using published data can assist in policy decisions designed to protect the health and safety of workers. Further efforts to document the frequency of occupationally acquired HCV are needed.
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