Cardiovascular risk in elderly persons without established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Age is the dominant driver of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, and the estimated 10-year ASCVD risk of almost all individuals ≥70 years exceeds conventional risk thresholds. Treatment of risk factors should be considered taking ASCVD risk modifiers, including frailty, lifetime treatment benefit, comorbidities, polypharmacy, socio-economic status, and patient preferences into account. Aim Because of problems with risk prediction in the elderly most ASCVD risk scores do not function well, so there is limited ability to quantify ASCVD risk in persons 70 years of age or older. Therefore, we sought out to estimate ASCVD risk in apparently healthy elderly persons. Methods We enrolled 253 apparently healthy elderly persons ≥70 years without established ASCVD. The Systemic Coronary Risk Estimation 2 - Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) score was used to estimate the 10-year risk of ASCVD. A 10-year risk ≥15% was generally considered ‘very high risk’, and 7.5% to <15% was considered ‘high risk’. Based on age study population was divided into four groups: (1) 70–74 years (N=61), (2) 75–79 years (N=73), 80–84 (N=76), and (4) 85-89 years (N=43). Results The median 10-year ASCVD risk in the entire cohort was 23% (17%–32%). There was no person with low ASCVD risk (<7.5%). 41 out of 253 persons (16.2%) were high-risk and 212 (83.8%) were very high-risk. The number of persons at very high risk of ASCVD increased dramatically with age. Roughly, almost all persons aged ≥75 years were deemed very high risk (Table 1). Multimorbidity defined as the presence of two or more chronic conditions and polypharmacy defined as the use of at least 5 medications were highly prevalent in all four study groups. Hypertension was the most prevalent condition – roughly eight in 10 persons had hypertension. The rate of overweight/obese patients was higher in younger persons. This fact was further reflected by the body composition of study participants and the rate of malnutrition (Table 1). Age ≥75 years was highly predictive for identifying persons at very high risk for ASCVD with a C-statistics of 0.92 (positive predictive value 99%, negative predictive value 53%; P<0.001) (Figure 1). Conclusions Older people without established ASCVD are a heterogeneous group. Most of them were found to be at very high risk of ASCVD. Age and high blood pressure were the dominant drivers of that risk. In addition, ASCVD risk modifiers such as multimorbidity, polypharmacy, and malnutrition were highly prevalent. These findings have important clinical and public health and individualized decisions regarding preventative and therapeutic strategies for elderly persons are needed.Table 1Baseline characteristicsFigure 1.ROC analysis