Cardiovascular risk assessment of the population under adverse weather conditions

Abstract

Introduction. Climate change around the world determines the relevance of the study of its effects on the human health. Nowadays, due to the development of modern medical science, the methods of evidence-based analysis of negative impact of the environmental factors on the public health are being widely implemented into preventive medicine. Their use should make it possible to quantify the various risks with high confidence and to manage them effectively. Material and methods. The weather conditions of the territory of Vladikavkaz for a 15-years period (2001-2015) have been studied. On the basis of the data from the primary medical documentation of emergency medical care (EMC) for the same period, the health status of the adult population in the city has been studied. The impact of the meteorological elements under the study on the frequency of seeking EMC was estimated using the relative (RR) and population risks (Rpop) values. Results. For the city of Vladikavkaz (according to the medical classification of weather conditions), high air humidity is typical for 65% of the days in a year, low air velocity (less than 3 m/s) - 77% of the days in a year. Inter-day fluctuations in temperature and atmospheric air pressure, exceeding the optimal levels for the human body, are recorded more than in 30% of the days in a year. Discussion. The city of Vladikavkaz is characterized by windless, wet weather, with frequent inter-day fluctuations in temperature and atmospheric air pressure, which corresponds to the clinically irritating and acute types of weather. Conclusion. The calculations of the relative and the population risks of impact of meteorological changes on the developing of urgent cardiovascular conditions in the population of Vladikavkaz showed RR of combining two unfavourable weather factors to be of 1.081 (p <0.0001), and the Rpop increases by more than 3600 additional EMC calls due to cardiovascular pathology.