CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK PREDICTION IN EASTERN EUROPE ACCORDING TO 5-YEARS PROSPECTIVE STUDY

Abstract

Objective: The aim of the study was to identify the most significant risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in Eastern European. Design and method: We conducted 5-years prospective andomised study of 3,500 individuals of the Belarusian population living in a district of Vitebsk in 2007/2008 (coverage of the survey was 97.9%), 2010/2011 (coverage of the survey was 77.8%) and 2012/2013 (coverage of the survey was 84.3%). The survey included standard questionnaires for detection of cardiovascular risk factors, measurements of blood pressure, electrocardiography, blood chemistry (serum CRP, uric acid and cholesterol data). In 5 years we registered new cases of hypertension, myocardial infarction, stroke and death from cardiovascular diseases in the studied population. Results: According to multifactorial regression analysis the risk factors for hypertension development included in the final model (df = 10; 2 Walda = 422,98; p < 0,001) were traditional risk factors, such as age (p < 0,001), sex (p < 0,23), high systolic blood pressure (>120 mmHg) (p < 0,001), high body mass index (>25,7 kg/m2) (p < 0,001), alcohol abuse (p < 0,01), heart rate (>70 beats/min) (p < 0,01), hereditary burden of stroke (p < 0,05) and new risk factors - high uric acid level (>338 mol/l) (p < 0,001), and high level of amount of ECG peaks SV1+RV5–V6 (>25 mm) (p < 0,001). The risk factors for the development of new cases of myocardial infarction, stroke and death from cardiovascular diseases included in the final model (df = 1; 2Walda = 32,2; p < 0,001) were age (p < 0,001), sex (p < 0,001), heart failure (p < 0,01), hypertension (p < 0,05), edema (p < 0,05) as well as low HDL (<1,08 mmol/l) (p < 0,01) and comorbidity, especially COPD (p < 0,01). The special role of COPD can be explained by the high prevalence of smoking in the Belarusian population (men - 60.6%, women - 13.8% (p < 0,001)). Conclusions: In the Belarusian population as well as traditional risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and cardiovascular death new risk factors, such as high uric acid level, high level of amount of ECG peaks SV1+RV5–V6, low HDL cholesterol and COPD, were established.