Cardiovascular disease risk factor variables in children at two successive years—the Bogalusa heart study

Abstract

As part of a community study of cardiovascular disease risk factor variables, 1101 children in four age-cohorts (5, 8, 11, 14 years) were examined during two successive years. The bivariate correlations within each of the four cohorts between one year and the next were highest for height, weight and triceps skinfold, intermediate for systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and β-lipoprotein, and lowest for diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, pre-β-lipoprotein, and α-lipoprotein. Employing multiple linear regression, we observed that once the level of a specified risk factor variable at the time of the initial examination was known, the inclusion of six additional independent variables did not substantially increase our ability to predict the level of that specific risk factor variable one year later. In a further analysis of the extremes, we observed that of those children who had triceps skinfold thicknesses above the 90th percentile at the first examination, over 70% remained in the top decile one year later. Comparable findings for blood pressure were 41% for systolic and 23% for diastolic, while for the lipids and lipoproteins, between 45 and 32% of those with initially elevated levels remained above the 90th percentile. These results suggest that tracking of obesity, blood pressure, and serum lipids and lipoproteins which is known to occur during adulthood is apparent, on an annual basis, in 5-to 15-year-old pediatric age groups.