Cardiovascular disease mortality in Belgrade: trends from 1975-89.

Abstract

To determine trends in cardiovascular disease mortality. This was a descriptive study analysing mortality data. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. The population of Belgrade in the age group 30-69 years was studied (about 760,000 inhabitants). Mortality rates were standardised directly using those of the "European population" as the standard, and regression analysis was undertaken. Between 1975 and 1989 "all causes" mortality increased by 27% (95% confidence interval 18.5, 35.9) in men and by 19% (11.6, 27.1) in women. The increase in cardiovascular disease mortality was 7% (1.7, 11.5) for men and 4% (0.2, 7.8) for women. Mortality from ischaemic heart disease fell in both sexes by 32% (23.0, 41.0), but mortality from other heart diseases rose by 31% (22.0, 40.2) in men and 25% (16.2, 33.0) in women. In men the death rate for cerebrovascular disease increased by 37% (27.8, 46.8), but in women the rate fell by 0.4% (-0.8, 1.6). Mortality from the observed causes of death was higher in men than in women. Cardiovascular mortality trends in Belgrade are similar to those in most eastern European countries. If the distribution of cigarette smoking and a "rich" diet in the Belgrade population is taken into account, a considerable decline in cardiovascular mortality trends cannot be expected in the near future.