Cardiovascular disease burden attributable to non-optimal temperature: analysis of the 1990-2019 global burden of disease.

Abstract

Extreme temperatures are increasingly experienced as a result of climate change. Both high and low temperatures, impacted by climate change, have been linked with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Global estimates on non-optimal temperature-related CVD are not known. The authors investigated global trends of temperature-related CVD burden over the last three decades. The authors utilized the 1990-2019 global burden of disease methodology to investigate non-optimal temperature, low temperature- and high temperature-related CVD deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally. Non-optimal temperatures were defined as above (high temperature) or below (low temperature) the location-specific theoretical minimum-risk exposure level or the temperature associated with the lowest mortality rates. Analyses were later stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI) and world regions. In 2019, non-optimal temperature contributed to 1 194 196 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 963 816-1 425 090) CVD deaths and 21 799 370 (95% UI: 17 395 761-25 947 499) DALYs. Low temperature contributed to 1 104 200 (95% UI: 897 783-1 326 965) CVD deaths and 19 768 986 (95% UI: 16 039 594-23 925 945) DALYs. High temperature contributed to 93 095 (95% UI: 10 827-158 386) CVD deaths and 2 098 989 (95% UI: 146 158-3 625 564) DALYs. Between 1990 and 2019, CVD deaths related to non-optimal temperature increased by 45% (95% UI: 32-63%), low temperature by 36% (95% UI: 25-48%), and high temperature by 600% (95% UI: -1879-2027%). Non-optimal temperature- and high temperature-related CVD deaths increased more in countries with low income than countries with high income. Non-optimal temperatures are significantly associated with global CVD deaths and DALYs, underscoring the significant impact of temperature on public health.