Carbon-reduction potential of electrification on China's railway transport: An analysis of three possible future scenarios

Abstract

China's national strategy identifies railway electrification as one of the principal means of reducing carbon emissions and optimising the energy structure of transportation in the country. Here, the authors investigate the carbon-reduction potential of rail electrification in China and present a model to estimate the CO2 emissions under three possible future scenarios. These scenarios differ in their contribution to railway transport in China's transportation market. The authors also consider the effect of potential improvements in the country's electricity generation mix. The results demonstrate that railway electrification using the current energy generation mix can reduce carbon emissions by 8.9%. However, using a generation mix similar to that of the UK can help achieve a maximum reduction of carbon emissions of 65.4%.