Carbon tariffs on Chinese exports: Emissions reduction, threat, or farce?

Abstract

(1) We estimate CO2 implicitly exported via commodities relative to a region's total emissions: We find −15% for the industrialized, 12% for the developing region, and 24% for China. (2) We analyze a Contraction and Convergence climate regime in a CGE model including international capital mobility and technology diffusion: When China does not participate in the regime and instead a carbon tariff is imposed on its exports, it will likely be worse off than when participating. This result does not hold for the developing region in general. Meanwhile, the effect on emissions appears small.