Carbon Stock Prediction in Managed Forest Ecosystems Using Bayesian and Frequentist Geostatistical Techniques and New Generation Remote Sensing Metrics

Abstract

The study compares the performance of a hierarchical Bayesian geostatistical methodology with a frequentist geostatistical approach, specifically, Kriging with External Drift (KED), for predicting C stock using prediction aides from the Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 multispectral remote sensing platforms. The frequentist geostatistical approach’s reliance on the long-run frequency of repeated experiments for constructing confidence intervals is not always practical or feasible, as practitioners typically have access to a single dataset due to cost constraints on surveys and sampling. We evaluated two approaches for C stock prediction using two new generation multispectral remote sensing datasets because of the inherent uncertainty characterizing spatial prediction problems in the unsampled locations, as well as differences in how the Bayesian and frequentist geostatistical paradigms handle uncertainty. Information on C stock spectral prediction in the form of NDVI, SAVI, and EVI derived from multispectral remote sensing platforms, Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2, was used to build Bayesian and frequentist-based C stock predictive models in the sampled plantation forest ecosystem. Sentinel-2-based C stock predictive models outperform their Landsat-8 counterparts using both the Bayesian and frequentist inference approaches. However, the Bayesian-based Sentinel-2 C stock predictive model (RMSE = 0.17 MgCha−1) is more accurate than its frequentist-based Sentinel-2 (RMSE = 1.19 MgCha−1) C stock equivalent. The Sentinel-2 frequentist-based C stock predictive model gave the C stock prediction range of 1 ≤ MgCha−1 ≤ 290, whilst the Sentinel-2 Bayesian-based C stock predictive model resulted in the prediction range of 1 ≤ MgCha−1 ≤ 285. However, both the Bayesian and frequentist C stock predictive models built with the Landsat-8 sensor overpredicted the sampled C stock because the range of predicted values fell outside the range of the observed C stock values. As a result, we recommend and conclude that the Bayesian-based C stock prediction method, when it is combined with high-quality remote sensing data such as that of Sentinel-2, is an effective inferential statistical methodology for reporting C stock in managed plantation forest ecosystems.