Carbon sequestration potential of forest vegetation in China from 2003 to 2050: Predicting forest vegetation growth based on climate and the environment

Abstract

Abstract Over the past two decades, the burning of fossil fuels in China has been excessive, causing carbon emissions to increase. Surface temperatures and the occurrence of natural disasters have also increased. Considering the important role of forests in reducing emissions, China conducted a series of studies on carbon storage by forest vegetation that involved well-developed estimation methods. However, there are still uncertainties in predicting future changes in forest vegetation acting as a carbon sink. This study used data collected from 7801 national forest inventory (NFI) forest plots in 2003, 2008 and 2013 as well as related forest ecosystem biomass data. The dynamic growth, biomass and carbon storage of arbor, economic and shrubbery forests were studied. This study made a breakthrough in predicting forest biomass and carbon storage based on growth-related changes in forest vegetation in China, improved the accuracy of predicting arbor forest carbon storage and filled a gap in research on the carbon storage/sink properties of economic, shrubbery and bamboo forests. In the results of this study, from 2003 to 2050, the carbon storage, density and carbon sink of forest vegetation in China increased rapidly. Mature forests in China played a major role in the increase in carbon storage, and the quality of young, half-mature and mature forests steadily improved. China’s forest carbon storage was mainly concentrated in the southwestern and northeastern regions, between which the southwestern region had the highest carbon density. In addition, carbon storage and density increased faster in the southwestern region than in the northeastern region. The carbon storage and density of forest vegetation were greater in Tibet than in other areas. The carbon storage of forest vegetation in Tibet increased faster than that in other areas, and the carbon density of forest vegetation in Xinjiang increased faster than that in other areas. In addition, the carbon storage and carbon density of forest vegetation in Ningxia increased slower than those in other areas. From 2020 to 2050, China’s forest vegetation will absorb 22.14% of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, which will play an important role in slowing increases in greenhouse gases in the next 30 years.