Carbon sequestration potential of eight economically important tree species in Northeast China under climate change

Abstract

The carbon sequestration potential of forest ecosystems is expected to play a crucial role in mitigating global warming, depending on how climate change will affect tree growth under various local environmental conditions. Here, we investigated the climatic limiting factors for forest tree growth and future carbon sequestration potential for eight economically important forest tree species in Zhongtiao Mountains of Shanxi Province in China. Specifically, we test if moisture limitations compromise annual radial increments (ARI) and a carbon sequestration index (IC), based on tree-rings and wood density. A bootstrapped response function analysis of historical detrended ARIs, reveals statistically significant moisture limitations in two or more summer months for half of the species investigated. Using a custom heat:moisture index based on these seasonal growth limitations, we predict IC under multi-model CMIP6 climate change projections for the region. Under moderate future climate scenarios for the period 2041–2070, the carbon sequestration potential for most species is likely to increase significantly. This is because under current climate only some species experience moisture limitations, and a projected increase in seasonal precipitation mitigates these growth limitations. We conclude that model projections are favorable for carbon sequestration and future commercial forestry potential in the Zhongtiao Mountain forestry region.