Abstract
Since 1850, over 145 ± 16 PgC (μ ± 1σ) has been emitted worldwide due to land-use change and deforestation. Besides industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS), storing carbon in forestry products and in regenerated forest has been recognized as a cost-effective carbon sequestration option, with an estimated worldwide sink potential of about 50–100 PgC (15–36 PgC from tropical forest alone). This paper proposes the expansion of a Brazilian integrated assessment model (MUSE-Brazil) by integrating a non-spatial biomass-growth model. The aim is to account for carbon sequestration potential from either reforestation or sugarcane expansion in abandoned agricultural lands. Modelling outputs suggest that Brazil has the potential to liberate up to 32.3 Mha of agricultural land by 2035, reaching 68.4 Mha by mid-century. If a sugarcane expansion policy is promoted, by 2050, the largest sequestration rates would come from above and below ground biomass pools; gradually releasing to the atmosphere around 1.6 PgC or 1.2% of the current Brazilian land carbon stock due to lower SOC carbon pools when turning agricultural lands into sugarcane crops. On the other hand, a reforestation-only scenario projects that by 2035 the baseline year carbon stock could be recovered and by 2050 the country’s carbon stock would have been increased by 3.2 PgC, reaching annual net sequestration rates of 0.1 PgC y−1, mainly supported by natural vegetation regeneration in the Cerrado biome.
Highlights
At the COP21 meeting, 195 nations have consented to restrict climate change to well underneath 2 °C (UN 2015)
The aim of this study is to develop a framework capable of modelling mechanization adoption and land intensification/extensification, as well as modelling reforestation and sugarcane expansion as a carbon negative measure and its wider implications in the energy and land use systems
The model reference scenario has shown that Brazil has the potential to liberate up to 32.3 Mha of agricultural land by 2035 and by 2050 this could reach 68.4 Mha
Summary
At the COP21 meeting, 195 nations have consented to restrict climate change to well underneath 2 °C (UN 2015). The agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible of around 24% of global anthropogenic emissions (IPCC 2014). Research with respect to diverse carbon sequestration processes in the AFOLU sector and in negative emissions technologies to offset the insufficient reduction in carbon emissions by the energy sector has been growing in the last decade (Minx et al 2017). Either for biofuels production or for electricity generation, have the capacity of decreasing emissions by substituting fossil fuels. Recent research has calculated that the maximum global bioenergy supply potential stands just below 1300 EJ y−1 (Haberl et al 2010; Raphael Slade et al 2011; Smeets et al 2007); if technical and economic constraints are considered, this value decreases to around 130–400 EJ y−1 (Deng et al 2015). Recent research has calculated that the maximum global bioenergy supply potential stands just below 1300 EJ y−1 (Haberl et al 2010; Raphael Slade et al 2011; Smeets et al 2007); if technical and economic constraints are considered, this value decreases to around 130–400 EJ y−1 (Deng et al 2015). Nijsen et al (2012) calculated a potential at around 150–190 EJ y−1, mainly coming from woody crops and grass from marginal lands
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