Abstract
This study estimates the impact of potential climate change, and human interference (anthropogenic deforestation), on temperate forest carbon pool change in the capital area of South Korea, using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). Additionally, the characteristics of forest carbon pool change were simulated based on a biogeochemical module. The change of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is deeply related to the change of the forest carbon pool, which is estimated with the measures of Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and Soil Carbon Storage (SCS). NPP and SCS were estimated at 2.02–7.43 tC ha−1 year−1 and 34.55–84.81 tC ha−1, respectively, during the period 1971–2000. SCS showed a significant decreasing tendency under the conditions of increasing air temperature, and precipitation, in the near future (2021–2050), and far future (2071–2100), which were simulated with future-climate scenario data without any human interference. Besides, it is estimated that the temporal change in NPP indicates only a small decrease, which is little influenced by potential climate change. In the case of potential climate change plus human interference, the decrease rate of NPP and SCS were simulated at 17–33% and 21–46%, respectively, during 2000–2100. Furthermore, the effect of potential human interference contributes to 83–93% and 61–54% of the decrease rate of NPP and SCS, respectively. The decline in the forest carbon pool simulated in this study can play a positive role in increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Consequently, the effect of potential human interference can further accelerate the decline of the temperate forest carbon pool. For the effective reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in urbanizing areas, it would be more effective to control human interference. Consequently, this study suggests that a rate of reforestation corresponding to the deforestation rate should be at least maintained, with long term monitoring and modeling-related studies, against climate change problems.
Highlights
The emission rate of greenhouse gases (GHG) by human interference has been increasing since the industrial revolution
It is clear that global warming is a key environmental concern, due to the strong possibility that increasing global surface air temperatures, can be attributed to the increase in greenhouse gases in the latter half of the twentieth century
The MAPSS-CENTURY (MC1) model used in this study is a new dynamic global vegetation model, which was created to estimate the impacts of global climate change on forest ecosystem structures, and functions at a wide spatial range from landscape (50 m) to global scales
Summary
The emission rate of greenhouse gases (GHG) by human interference has been increasing since the industrial revolution. It is clear that global warming is a key environmental concern, due to the strong possibility that increasing global surface air temperatures, can be attributed to the increase in greenhouse gases in the latter half of the twentieth century. Even though the global surface air temperature increased by 0.74 ◦ C during the past 100 years, global warming has accelerated up to 1.3 ◦ C per 100 years for the most recent 50 years [2]. Carbon assimilation in forest areas plays importantrole, role,not notonly only in in carbon carbon sequestration, and landscape, recreation space, and terrestrial ecosystem conservation [7]. We propose that under the conditions of of potential and anthropogenic pools should be be increasing in anthropogenic deforestation, deforestation,the thevariation variationofoftemperate temperateforest forestcarbon carbon pools should increasing the capital areas of of.
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