Abstract
China's carbon peak and neutrality targets pose major challenges for the transportation sector due to its significant contribution to carbon emissions. The analysis of the penetration process and impact of electric delivery vehicles (EDVs) in the urban delivery industry (UDI) is relatively poor compared with electric passenger vehicles. This study conducts a scenario analysis of the electrification process and carbon impact of delivery vehicles (DVs) in Chinese cities based on current data and policies. In the baseline scenario, the stock of urban DVs is predicted to reach 22.4 million in 2035, while the stock of EDVs will reach 7.8 million, representing 35 % of the total. Carbon emissions from DVs will decline from a peak of 120.5 Mt in 2022 to 101.4 Mt in 2035 due to the penetration of EDVs. The high electrification rate (HER) scenario will result in an additional 10 Mt of carbon emissions reduction in 2035 as 45 % of DVs are electric. Furthermore, the impact of electrification on carbon emissions shows a spatial gradient due to city size and local policies. With a better understanding of EDV adoption and energy-related carbon emissions in Chinese cities, suggestions are proposed to promote low-carbon transition of UDI in different types of cities.
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