Abstract
Natural and engineered carbon dioxide removal have become regular features of climate models which limit warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This gives rise to an assumption that solutions, for example direct air capture (DAC)—involving the direct removal of carbon dioxide from ambient air—can be commercialised and deployed at the necessary speed and scale to have a material impact, in the order of gigatonnes, by mid-century. Modular, solid-sorbent DAC on a gigatonne scale will require the mass mobilisation of supply chains to manufacture millions of modular DAC units−20 million of the present state of the art 50 tonne/year modules to deliver 1 gigatonne per year, as well as the large-scale production of novel chemical sorbents. To achieve a climate relevant DAC industry will demand innovative procurement models, for example carbon purchase agreements (CPAs), and dedicated DAC manufacturing facilities or dactories. In addition, insight is offered through the work of DAC start-up Carbon Infinity into the industry supply-chain position, adopting lessons from computing, and energy technologies. In particular, we look at approaches to drive demand and scale-up DAC module production, and opportunities presented in the development of an integrated DAC manufacturing industry.
Highlights
Specialty section: This article was submitted to Negative Emission Technologies, a section of the journal Frontiers in Climate
This gives rise to an assumption that solutions, for example direct air capture (DAC)—involving the direct removal of carbon dioxide from ambient air—can be commercialised and deployed at the necessary speed and scale to have a material impact, in the order of gigatonnes, by mid-century
Solid-sorbent DAC on a gigatonne scale will require the mass mobilisation of supply chains to manufacture millions of modular DAC units−20 million of the present state of the art 50 tonne/year modules to deliver 1 gigatonne per year, as well as the large-scale production of novel chemical sorbents
Summary
In conjunction with economy-wide decarbonisation, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has shifted from a desirable component to an invaluable element in the formula of addressing runaway global temperature rise. Broad consensus exists within the scientific community with respect to the necessity of widespread carbon removal to limit temperature rise within “safe” levels, aligned with the purview of the Paris Agreement This is evidenced in models reviewed by the IPCC where all pathways that limit global warming to 1.5◦C with limited or no overshoot project the use of CDR on the order of up to 1,000 GtCO2, that is 1 trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide, over the twenty-first century. Solid sorbent-based systems are more modular in nature, involving a standardised and highly-scalable manufacturing process to produce air capture modules This approach is the technical focus of this paper, as well as the Swiss firm Climeworks, Global Thermostat in the US, and the China-based Carbon Infinity. REAP rewards: resilience and efficiency aligned policies (REAP) developing integrated yet resilient supply chains, addressing resource constraints, and supporting the scale-up of a globally consequential DAC industry
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