Carbon-neutral power system transition pathways for coal-dominant and renewable Resource-abundant regions: Inner Mongolia as a case study

Abstract

Under the vision of carbon neutrality, reaching carbon peaking and neutrality targets in the power industry in coal-dominated, renewable energy-rich provinces is facing unprecedented development pressure. This study used the optimization model to research the deeper decarburisation path with the lowest cost to the Inner Mongolian power industry. Then, three scenarios were set based on the gradual increase of carbon emission constraints and the increased renewable energy target. The electricity demand, installed capacity and generation, cost-effectiveness, and carbon emissions were evaluated under the three scenarios. Results showed that (1) electricity demand will grow steadily in all three scenarios by 2060, to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets, with industrial electricity demand falling by an average of 41.15%, while the ‘transport, storage & postal’ needs to rise by 88.82%. (2) Inner Mongolia needs to fully tap the renewable energy potential, establish a renewable energy storage system, diversify its power supply mode, and achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality target. (3) Achieving a profound emission reduction at minimum cost is feasible. Compared with keeping 13.01% of coal power as a flexible power supply in the nationally determined contributions scenario, completely withdrawing coal power in the carbon neutrality scenario in 2060 will reduce carbon emissions by 148.10 million metric tons and costs by 1375.92 billion yuan. This method can analyse the carbon emission pathways and emission reduction measures of the resource-based provincial power sector, including setting boundaries, scenario analysis, forecasting future emissions, analysing results, and providing policy recommendations. Providing relevant countermeasures for government departments, industry organisations, power companies, and individuals to conduct carbon neutrality-related work.