Carbon footprint analysis of household consumption in greater Guadalajara reveal stark socio-spatial inequalities

Abstract

Household consumption drives more than 65% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, most governments plan to meet the Paris Agreement based on production-based accounting (PBA), neglecting lifecycle emissions embodied in trade and consumption, as well as socio-spatial inequalities. This is a sub-city consumption-based accounting (CBA) analysis of Guadalajara Metropolitan Area (MAG), grounded on Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output using EXIOBASE 3.8.1, combined with Mexico's 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey. The main objective is to explain the CO2e footprint of MAG's households, identifying emission hotspots and socio-spatial inequalities. This household CBA estimate shows MAG emitted a total of 23.35 MtCO2e during 2018, at least 26.6% higher than the local Climate Action Plan (CPA) territorial PBA estimate, and 121% higher for food. The average per capita footprint is 4.52 tCO2e, 40% higher than the average Mexican and 61% higher than the recommended level of 2.8 tCO2e/cap-yr to align with 1.5 °C pathways by 2030. However, 26% of the MAG population, mostly low-income households, is below this level. Conversely, highest incomes and per capita CO2e footprints are concentrated in Zapopan and Guadalajara, with 64% of total emissions despite hosting 55% population together. Further, income decile X reach 35% of the total emissions with 13% of the population. If left unchecked, MAG's footprints might increase with the trends of urbanization, inequality, higher consumption, and smaller households, as we find larger households associate with lower footprints. We confirm the need to complement CAP with CBA approach and increase socio-spatial resolution to unlock demand-side solutions that leverage on the interplay between urban, socioeconomic, and technical factors.