Carbon fiber composite core conductor operation risk assessment model based on various types of monitoring data

Abstract

Abstract As the national economy grows gradually and the scale of urbanization expands, the standard for power transmission is also continuously increasing. Currently, the existing transmission lines can no longer meet the rising power demand, thus urgently requiring the construction of power transmission capacity expansion. Although there are many strategies for increasing capacity, the development of enhanced conductor material is indeed its greatest advantage. However, among the various options for increasing capacity, the development of capacity-enhancing wires is also the most advantageous. Carbon fiber conductors, which are known as “black gold,” are the perfect material for this purpose. Given the inherent economic value, high brittleness, and complexity of the installation process of carbon fiber materials, this study proposes an operational risk assessment model for carbon fiber composite core conductors based on multiple monitoring data. For the first time, the influence between quarterly lightning strike probability and arc droop as well as the temperature drop effect on overhead transmission conductors by convective heat dissipation from natural wind are taken into account. The expected arc sag size of the conductor in the future period can be predicted according to the meteorological forecast, which can effectively prevent the impact of flashovers and wire breakage on the operation of the power grid. In addition, the practicality and functionality of the assessment model have been verified by real accident data.