Carbon Emissions Prediction from Land Change Model in Bandung Regency, Indonesia

Abstract

Carbon emissions in Bandung Regency is potentially increasing and can harm future environment in the area. Our study aims to predict carbon emissions in Bandung Regency based on land changes model of the area. We utilized Cellular Automata Markov method which predicted land use in the years of 2027 and 2036. This land use prediction used overlay intersect method and were analysed using two scenarios: backward and forward looking. The backward looking scenario analysis combined the land used map of 2019 and two land use maps prediction of 2027 and 2036. Meanwhile, the forward looking scenario analysis combined the land used map of 2019 and the urban planning plan of Bandung Regency in the years of 2016 to 2036. Carbon emission were calculate using stock difference method for both scenarios. Afterwards, the carbon emission results were classified using quartile method. The result in the backward scenario showed that the carbon emission is dominated compare to sequestration, with total emission of 811,330.81 tonnes of CO2 eq for the years of 2019 to 2027 and 998,288.22 tonnes of CO2 eq for the years of 2019 to 2036. In the forward looking scenario, carbon sequestration is dominated compare to emission, with highest sequestration around -804,125.22 tonnes of CO2 eq, while highest emission is around 245,506.51 tonnes CO2 eq. Overall, both simulation showed that the highest emission occurs in Cilengkrang-Cimenyan development area, and the carbon sequestration occurs in Baleendah, Cileunyi-Rancaekek, and Margahayu-Margaasih development areas.