Carbon emission reduction potentials under different polices in Chinese cities: A scenario-based analysis

Abstract

City is the core for carbon emission reduction. This paper examines CO2 emission efficiency and productivity in 286 Chinese cities under different production scenarios using a non-radial directional distance function approach. The examination is conducted via three scenarios, namely CO2 emission reduction (ER), emission reduction and energy conservation (EREC), and emission reduction, energy conservation, and economic growth (ERECEG). The results show substantial differences in total-factor emission efficiency and productivity across the three scenarios. We also found that total-factor emission efficiency varies considerably across regional and different-sized city groups. However, the distribution dynamics analysis provides strong evidence for the convergence of total-factor emission efficiency across Chinese cities in the long run. Efficiency change contributes of the majority of cross-city variation in productivity growth for the sample period. However, low average total-factor emission efficiency and large disparity in emission efficiency indicate great potential for future CO2 reduction. Regional development programs tend to drive economic activities into low CO2 emission performance regions. Our empirical findings provide valuable policy implications for achieving the joint targets of economic growth and CO2 emission reduction.