Abstract
The CO2 emission-mitigation policies adopted in different Chinese cities are important for achieving national emission-mitigation targets. China faces enormous inequalities in terms of regional economic development and urbanization, with some cities growing rapidly, while others are shrinking. This study selects 280 cities in China and divides them into two groups of growing cities and two groups of shrinking cities. This is achieved using an index called “urban development degree,” which is calculated based on economic, demographic, social, and land-use indicators. Then, the 280 cities’ CO2 emission characteristics are examined, and extended STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) is used to verify the influencing factors. We find that rapidly growing cities (RGCs) present a trend of fluctuating growth in CO2 emissions, rapidly shrinking cities (RSCs) show an inverted U-shaped trend, and slightly growing (SGCs) and slightly shrinking cities (SSCs) show a trend of rising first, followed by steady development. Moreover, for growing cities, the population, economy, and proportion of tertiary industry have positive effects on carbon emissions, while technology has negative effects. For shrinking cities, the population and economy have significant positive effects on carbon emissions, while technology and the proportion of tertiary industry have negative effects.
Highlights
Giuseppina CaponettoChina has become one of the world’s major consumers of energy and emitters of carbon dioxide
In order to be comparable with the regression results for the other three groups of cities, a fixed-effects model was used for rapidly growing cities (RGCs)
Taking 280 cities as samples, a urban development degree (UDD) index developed by the authors was used to divide the cities into four groups: RGCs, slightly growing cities (SGCs), rapidly shrinking cities (RSCs), and slightly shrinking cities (SSCs)
Summary
Giuseppina CaponettoChina has become one of the world’s major consumers of energy and emitters of carbon dioxide. As highly concentrated places of population and industry, typically produce about 80% of total carbon emissions; in Chinese cities, the proportion is as high as 85% [3]. In China, with rapid urbanization and enormous imbalances in regional development, some cities are growing, while others are shrinking [6,7]. The populations and economies of growing and shrinking cities are varied, resulting in divergent effects on carbon emissions. CO2 emission-mitigation policies need to be adjusted according to the characteristics of different cities [5]. It is necessary, to explore the characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions in growing and shrinking cities to more effectively achieve emission targets
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