Carbon Emission and Industrial Structure Adjustment in the Yellow River Basin of China: Based on the LMDI Decomposition Model

Abstract

In the context of promoting high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China, urgent action is needed to achieve the “Dual Carbon” goal through energy savings, emission reductions, and industrial upgrading. This study measures carbon emissions from eight types of energy consumption across 43 industries from 2000 to 2019. Using the Kaya-LMDI model, factors affecting carbon emissions are analyzed, and the relationship between industrial structure and carbon emissions is explored through the coefficient of variation (CV). The findings reveal that coal consumption remains significantly higher than other energy sources, and the effect of energy structure adjustment on carbon emission reduction is limited compared to the impact of energy consumption increase on carbon emission growth. Moreover, the economic output effect is identified as the primary driving factor of carbon emissions, while energy utilization rate is crucial in achieving energy savings and emission reductions. Finally, the CV of carbon emissions across 43 industries is increasing. Based on these results, we suggest several policy recommendations, including prioritizing ecological concerns, developing comprehensive and scientifically sound plans, optimizing energy consumption structure, improving energy utilization efficiency, and adjusting industrial structure to promote sustainable development in the YRB.