Carbon Dioxide Concentration Prediction Study Based on Grey Prediction Model and ARIMA Model

Abstract

Concentrations of carbon dioxide began to soar after the Industrial Revolution and are now a serious threat to the global climate, and predicting future carbon dioxide levels is essential to balance economic prosperity and sustainable development. In this paper, the gray GM (1, 1) model and the ARIMA model are established to predict future carbon dioxide concentrations. The gray GM (1, 1) model predicts that carbon dioxide concentration levels will reach 685 ppm by 2132, and ARIMA models predict that carbon dioxide concentration levels will reach 685 ppm by 2103. The goodness-of-fit of the gray GM (1, 1) model and the ARIMA model were 0.99989 and 0.99998, respectively, and the ARIMA model was more accurate than the prediction results of the grey prediction model.