Abstract
An increasing number of cities are transitioning from fossil fuel-powered buses for public transport to battery electric buses, but there is still much confusion about the economic evaluation of the electrification of buses, especially in terms of the carbon asset value for carbon emissions reduction in this transition. Taking Beijing as the example, this paper studies the economic value of the transition of public buses from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses from the perspective of carbon asset theory, and mainly focuses the analysis on direct carbon emissions. First, the theory and methodology of carbon asset evaluation are introduced for the transition from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses. Second, the internal determinants of the carbon assets for the transition from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses are studied. Third, the distinct impacts of the determinants of the carbon assets of the transition from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses are analysed. The results indicate that (1) the transition from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses has a carbon asset value; (2) the carbon asset value of the transition from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses is determined by the distance-specific CO2 emissions of fossil fuel-powered buses, the carbon price and the annual driving distances of the buses as well as the discounted rate of the carbon assets for buses and the termination time of the fossil fuel-powered or battery electric buses; and (3) the carbon assets contribute to the economic value of the transition from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses. This paper provides academic support for the economic evaluation of the transition from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses in a low-carbon society.
Highlights
Emission mitigation is one of the major topics of the 21st century [1]
A one-unit change in the annual driving distance of a bus will only induce the annual CATFE value to change from 0.0366 to 0.0519 for the different types of fossil fuel-powered buses. These results suggest that a change in the carbon price will induce the annual CATFE value to change much more than a change in the annual driving distance of any type of fossil fuel-powered bus, the carbon price or the annual driving distance of a bus has distinct impacts on the carbon asset value of the transition to battery electric buses for the different types of fossil fuel-powered buses
This paper introduces the concept and methodology of carbon assets into the transition from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses and further analyses the influencing factors and their impacts on the value of the carbon asset of the transition from fossil fuel-powered buses to battery electric buses (CATFE)
Summary
Emission mitigation is one of the major topics of the 21st century [1]. The emissions from road transport have attracted wide publicity, as they cause a severe threat to inner-city air quality and contribute 22% of the global CO2 emissions [2,3]. As electric automobiles have advantages in energy efficiency, are emission free and produce lower noise levels, the emerging electric buses with decreasing costs are gradually replacing the widely used fossil fuel-powered buses, such as diesel-powered buses [2,4,5]. An increasing number of cities are transitioning from fossil fuel-powered buses for public transport to battery electric buses [10], the adoption of electric buses globally is geographically uneven and limited in scale [11]. Only a few studies have analysed the environmental value in an economic evaluation of electric buses or the electrification of buses [13] To bridge this gap, the concept of carbon assets is applied to study the value of the contribution of the electrification of buses to the carbon emissions reduction in this paper
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