Abstract
In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Here we show that in contrast to a free trade world, with the emission intensity in each sector unchanged, an extremely anti-trade scenario with current tariffs plus an additional 25% tariff on each traded product would reduce the global export volume by 32.5%, gross domestic product by 9.0%, carbon dioxide by 6.3%, and PM2.5-related mortality by 4.1%. The respective impacts would be substantial for the United States, Western Europe and China. A freer trade scenario would increase global carbon dioxide emission and air pollution due to higher levels of production, especially in developing regions with relatively high emission intensities. Global collaborative actions to reduce emission intensities in developing regions could help achieve an economic-environmental win-win state through globalization.
Highlights
In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes
Recent work based on empirical trade data has shown that, with given amounts of global total burdens, large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2), particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, and related premature deaths are embedded in traded products[2,3,4,5,6]; in other words, these environmental burdens are associated with production for export
Based on five trade scenarios differentiated by the extent of trade restrictions, we take an interdisciplinary approach to integrating the latest standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP, version 10 data base for 2014), a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model[14,15,16] for global trade and economic analysis, a customized emission inventory derived from the Community Emission Database System (CEDS)[17] and Xia et al.[18], the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemical transport model[19], a satellite-based dataset for nearsurface PM2.5 mass concentrations[20], and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM)[21] for pollution exposure
Summary
Production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Compared to ATR (Supplementary Fig. 5), the two trade war scenarios reduce GDP, CO2 emission, and mortality in both the USA (by 0.33–0.39% for TW1, 0.76–1.26% for TW2) and China (by 0.18–0.64% for TW1, 0.24–1.22% for TW2), but with increases in other regions.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
