CAPITAL FLOW WAVES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM ADVANCED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

Abstract

There have been growing concerns that volatile international capital flows could harm macroeconomic conditions in a country, although capital mobility generally promotes efficient resource allocation. To understand the roles of gross capital inflows and outflows, this study examines the effects of extreme capital flow waves on economic growth in 164 developing and advanced economies. The main results show clear differences between them. Growth in advanced countries is insensitive to extreme capital flow waves, but for developing countries, sudden stops and retrenchments (sudden decreases in capital inflows and outflows) hurt growth, while surges (sudden increases in capital inflows) are positively associated with growth. The analysis indicates that developing economies are vulnerable to sharp decreases in both capital inflows and capital outflows. Our findings have policy implications for financial regulators, particularly in developing countries, indicating that they should pay more attention to macroprudential policies related to capital flow management aimed at stabilizing capital flow movements.