Capital account liberalisation and systemic financial risk: evidence from 24 countries

Abstract

Capital account liberalisation can give rise to uncertainty in capital flows, which may lead to an accumulation of financial risks. This study measures the systemic financial risk indices using the coefficient of variation method with data of 24 countries from 2003 to 2019 and the impact of capital account liberalisation on systemic financial risks using the panel threshold model. Evidence shows that systemic financial risk indices vary heterogeneously across countries. The systemic financial risk indices of high-income countries are lower than those of middle- and low-income countries. Second, capital account liberalisation has an asymmetric effect on systemic financial risk with a double threshold. Low-intensity and high-intensity capital account liberalisation increases systemic financial risk. However, medium-intensity capital account liberalisation is effective in reducing systemic financial risk. Third, the heterogeneity results suggest that capital account liberalisation is conducive to reducing the financial risk of high- and middle-income countries and has the opposite effect on low-income countries. Therefore, this study recommends that countries adjust the intensity of capital account liberalisation according to their national conditions. It is necessary to establish a regulatory system for cross-border capital flows and maximise the benefits of liberalisation while safeguarding financial market stability.