Capacity value of offshore wind in Great Britain

Abstract

The extent to which large volumes of offshore wind can contribute to a secure and reliable electricity supply is the subject of much debate. Central to providing credible answers is a detailed understanding of the wind resource and its variability in time and space. Here, a mesoscale atmospheric model was employed to create a 10 year hindcast of British onshore and offshore wind speeds and simulate the output of a British offshore wind fleet. This enabled estimation of the capacity value of British wind fleets both on- and offshore during periods of high winter demand. It provides a credible estimate of the distinct long-term contribution of production from a future British offshore wind fleet and indicates substantial improvement over onshore wind. Furthermore, a first level analysis demonstrated that the availability of offshore wind farms had a modest negative impact on the capacity value of wind but that conventional generation and demand levels played a more significant role.