Capacity Credit Evaluation of Wind and Solar Power Generation Using Non-Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Renewable power, especially wind and solar integration to the power grid is gaining more attention nowadays. However, the contribution of wind and solar generators to the power system reliability is significantly low due to the diurnal and seasonal variations and intermittency of solar irradiance and wind speed. Capacity credit provides an idea of actual solar PV or wind capacity contribution to the power system reliability. In this paper, the non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain reliability curves to evaluate the capacity credit of solar PV and wind power facilities situated in Sri Lanka (SL). Moreover, SL capacity values are compared with capacity values of wind and solar generation in Brussels, Belgium which has a temperate maritime climate. The impact of power system reliability level and seasonal renewable power variations on capacity credit values are explored using several case studies. Results show that for SL, the wind capacity value significantly varies with seasons whereas the solar PV capacity value remains the same throughout the year.